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Iranian Dissident

Since Tehran is painting events in Cairo and elsewhere as the long-awaited regional blossoming of its own Islamic Revolution, to deny a permit for such a march would show that its position in support of the Arab movements is fake, Mr. Karroubi said in a rare interview from Tehran, conducted via an Internet video link. For the Iranian opposition, events in Cairo mirror the post-election protest movement in Iran in 2009, not the 1979 Islamic Revolution, and could give new life to the Green movement for political reform, which Mr. Karroubi said had largely been battered into submission by government oppression. “Any kind of event that involves the rise of the people and the fight against dictatorship in the Muslim world and in the Arab world is in our benefit,” said Mr. Karroubi, 72, speaking in Persian from his home, where he is largely isolated. “Next Monday will be a test for the Green movement — if the government issues a permit, there will be a huge demonstration and it will show how alive the Green movement is.” Both sides in Iran are invested in the outcome in Egypt because of possible repercussions at home. There is an imperfect connection between the two worlds: the ancient enmity between Persians and Arabs has extended into the modern era, amplified by the fact that most Iranians are Shiite Muslims while Arab countries are overwhelmingly Sunni. But events in one can echo in the other. For instance, Iran’s president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has gained widespread popularity among Arabs in recent years for his tough posture toward the United States and Israel. Tehran has tried to leverage its stance on the Arab-Israeli dispute into a means to influence Arab countries. Now it seeks to portray the political unrest in Egypt, Tunisia and elsewhere as the long-delayed rippling of the Islamic Revolution through the neighborhood. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, gave a prayer sermon last Friday lauding the demonstrators. Mr. Karroubi, a former presidential candidate and Parliament speaker, said that all the news in the official Iranian media tends to highlight statements from Islamic organizations and focus on Western concerns that the Muslim Brotherhood is about to triumph in Egypt. Hence the pressure on the Iranian government to allow the protest march through downtown Tehran to go forward on Monday despite the risk that it could be transformed into an antigovernment rally of a kind not seen in a year.